Dry-season outlook EXPERIMENTAL
Experimental, not a forecast. This page puts two measured things side by side: how low the river is now, and how full the upstream reservoirs look from space. Read it as context, not a prediction.
Summary
Mainstream gauges are very low for the season and the two big upstream reservoirs (Xiaowan, Nuozhadu) are smaller than usual for the month (Xiaowan 22nd, Nuozhadu 22nd percentile of water area). Less stored water could mean less dry-season support, so low flows through the dry season are plausible. This is not a forecast.
7 of 8 MRC gauges are below the 10th percentile for the date.
River now (MRC gauges)
| Station | Date | Percentile vs 2006–2025 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Saen | 2026-10-31 | 11 | low |
| Vientiane | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Khong Chiam | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Pakse | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Stung Treng | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Kratie | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Tan Chau | 2026-10-31 | 5 | very low |
| Chau Doc | 2026-10-31 | 4 | very low |
Upstream reservoirs (water area from Sentinel-1)
| Dam | Month | Area km² | Percentile for this month (2017–2025) | 3-month change | Past-season range by April (analogue) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xiaowan | 2026-10 | 121.7 | 22 | +25.6% | 74.5–101.6 km² (median 87.1; 9 past seasons) |
| Nuozhadu | 2026-10 | 197.3 | 22 | -1.3% | 158.2–225.5 km² (median 192.6; 9 past seasons) |
| Manwan | 2026-10 | 7.6 | 44 | -14.6% | 6.6–9.4 km² (median 7.8; 9 past seasons) |
| Dachaoshan | 2026-10 | 13.9 | 67 | -22.3% | 11.7–19.8 km² (median 15.2; 9 past seasons) |
| Jinghong | 2026-10 | 21.2 | 67 | -14.2% | 18.6–31.6 km² (median 22.4; 9 past seasons) |
Caveats
- Experimental: rule-of-thumb indicators, not a hydrological forecast. No skill has been tested.
- Reservoir figures are Sentinel-1 water AREA, not storage volume.
- The April range is just the spread of past Oct→Apr area changes (2017–2025); dam operations can break it.
- Gauge percentiles show how low the river is, not why (rain, dams, irrigation, sand mining all matter).
Sources: MRC PMFM (public dashboard data), Copernicus Sentinel-1. See data sources and methods.