Chiang Khan: past signals vs what the gauge showed
41 upstream signals since 2023: 22 rise seen · 19 no rise seen · 0 can't check (no gauge data). 28 gauge rises since 2023 had no signal.
Rise = water level up by at least 0.5 m from one day to the next at the gauge, any cause (often rain). Check window = the signal month plus the slow travel time (7 days) plus one day. Gauge: Vientiane (nearest). Gauge data held: 2006-11-03 to 2026-10-31.
- A 'Rise seen' is a coincidence in time, not proof the dam caused it: most wet-season rises are rain.
- Signals are monthly satellite estimates; they cannot time a release to the day.
- Gauge history: MRC PMFM public dashboard daily water levels (public tier, ~20 years), used here only to find rise dates; the daily series is not offered for download or in exports.
- The basin-wide backtest (/api/flow/backtest) shows no skill above chance. Read this page in that light.
- Chiang Khan has no gauge in our set; the nearest one (Vientiane) is used.
| Signal month | Dam | Severity | Check window | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-08 | Rise seen — 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02 |
| 2026-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-08 | Rise seen — 2026-09-01, 2026-09-02 |
| 2026-05 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-08 | No rise seen |
| 2026-05 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-08 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-08 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-08 | No rise seen |
| 2025-07 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-08 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-19, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-08 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-19, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-08 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-19, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-04 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-04-01 to 2025-05-08 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-08 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-08 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-08 | Rise seen — 2024-10-04 |
| 2024-10 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-08 | Rise seen — 2024-10-04 |
| 2024-10 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-08 | Rise seen — 2024-10-04 |
| 2024-10 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-08 | Rise seen — 2024-10-04 |
| 2024-08 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-08 | Rise seen — 2024-08-02, 2024-08-04, 2024-08-05, 2024-08-06, 2024-08-18, 2024-08-19, 2024-08-22 |
| 2024-08 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-08 | Rise seen — 2024-08-02, 2024-08-04, 2024-08-05, 2024-08-06, 2024-08-18, 2024-08-19, 2024-08-22 |
| 2024-08 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-08 | Rise seen — 2024-08-02, 2024-08-04, 2024-08-05, 2024-08-06, 2024-08-18, 2024-08-19, 2024-08-22 |
| 2024-06 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-08 | Rise seen — 2024-06-12, 2024-06-13, 2024-06-28 |
| 2024-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-08 | Rise seen — 2024-06-12, 2024-06-13, 2024-06-28 |
| 2024-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-08 | Rise seen — 2024-06-12, 2024-06-13, 2024-06-28 |
| 2024-06 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-08 | Rise seen — 2024-06-12, 2024-06-13, 2024-06-28 |
| 2024-01 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-08 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-08 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-08 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-08 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-08 | Rise seen — 2023-09-18, 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-08 | Rise seen — 2023-09-18, 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-09 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-08 | Rise seen — 2023-09-18, 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-09 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-08 | Rise seen — 2023-09-18, 2023-09-19 |
| 2023-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-08 | Rise seen — 2023-06-28 |
| 2023-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-08 | Rise seen — 2023-06-28 |
| 2023-04 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-08 | No rise seen |
| 2023-04 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-08 | No rise seen |
Unflagged rises
2023-07-27, 2023-08-06, 2023-08-07, 2023-08-08, 2023-08-09, 2023-08-10, 2023-10-09, 2023-10-10, 2024-07-18, 2024-09-10, 2024-09-11, 2024-09-12, 2024-09-13, 2024-12-20, 2025-05-27, 2025-06-16, 2025-06-28, 2025-10-01, 2025-10-02, 2026-04-26, 2026-06-14, 2026-07-01, 2026-07-04, 2026-08-07, 2026-08-08, 2026-08-09, 2026-08-10, 2026-08-31
Source: Data: Mekong River Commission (MRC), PMFM public dashboard. Rated discharge is MRC's estimate from water level.