Chiang Saen: past signals vs what the gauge showed
41 upstream signals since 2023: 20 rise seen · 21 no rise seen · 0 can't check (no gauge data). 17 gauge rises since 2023 had no signal.
Rise = water level up by at least 0.5 m from one day to the next at the gauge, any cause (often rain). Check window = the signal month plus the slow travel time (24 h) plus one day. Gauge: ChiangSaen. Gauge data held: 2006-11-03 to 2026-10-31.
- A 'Rise seen' is a coincidence in time, not proof the dam caused it: most wet-season rises are rain.
- Signals are monthly satellite estimates; they cannot time a release to the day.
- Gauge history: MRC PMFM public dashboard daily water levels (public tier, ~20 years), used here only to find rise dates; the daily series is not offered for download or in exports.
- The basin-wide backtest (/api/flow/backtest) shows no skill above chance. Read this page in that light.
| Signal month | Dam | Severity | Check window | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-02 | No rise seen |
| 2026-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-02 | No rise seen |
| 2026-05 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-02 | No rise seen |
| 2026-05 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-02 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-02 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-02 | No rise seen |
| 2025-07 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-02 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-02 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-02 | Rise seen — 2025-07-18, 2025-07-24, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-04 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-04-01 to 2025-05-02 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-02 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-02 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-02 | Rise seen — 2024-10-02, 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-10 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-02 | Rise seen — 2024-10-02, 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-10 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-02 | Rise seen — 2024-10-02, 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-10 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-02 | Rise seen — 2024-10-02, 2024-10-03 |
| 2024-08 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-02 | Rise seen — 2024-08-01, 2024-08-02, 2024-08-03, 2024-08-14, 2024-08-22, 2024-08-24 |
| 2024-08 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-02 | Rise seen — 2024-08-01, 2024-08-02, 2024-08-03, 2024-08-14, 2024-08-22, 2024-08-24 |
| 2024-08 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-02 | Rise seen — 2024-08-01, 2024-08-02, 2024-08-03, 2024-08-14, 2024-08-22, 2024-08-24 |
| 2024-06 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-02 | Rise seen — 2024-06-07, 2024-06-08 |
| 2024-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-02 | Rise seen — 2024-06-07, 2024-06-08 |
| 2024-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-02 | Rise seen — 2024-06-07, 2024-06-08 |
| 2024-06 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-02 | Rise seen — 2024-06-07, 2024-06-08 |
| 2024-01 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-02 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-02 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-02 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-02 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-02 | Rise seen — 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-02 | Rise seen — 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-09 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-02 | Rise seen — 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-09 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-02 | Rise seen — 2023-09-15 |
| 2023-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-02 | Rise seen — 2023-06-22, 2023-06-23, 2023-07-02 |
| 2023-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-02 | Rise seen — 2023-06-22, 2023-06-23, 2023-07-02 |
| 2023-04 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-02 | No rise seen |
| 2023-04 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-02 | No rise seen |
Unflagged rises
2023-07-22, 2024-07-13, 2024-09-10, 2024-09-11, 2024-09-12, 2025-06-10, 2025-06-11, 2025-06-23, 2025-08-07, 2025-08-22, 2025-12-08, 2025-12-09, 2026-08-06, 2026-08-07, 2026-08-29, 2026-08-30, 2026-08-31
Source: Data: Mekong River Commission (MRC), PMFM public dashboard. Rated discharge is MRC's estimate from water level.