Chiang Saen: will the river rise in the next 7 days? Beta
Beta. New forecast, tested on past years but with only a short live record. Use it as background, not for decisions.
10%–25% chance the river at Chiang Saen rises 0.5 m or more above today's level by 2026-11-07.
Model estimate 15%. In held-out years 1005 past forecasts in this band were followed by a rise 17% of the time.
For comparison: the usual chance for this time of year is 19%; "same as recent days" gives 23%. Based on gauge data up to 2026-10-31 and NASA IMERG rain up to 2026-10-31 (late run).
Not a flood warning. Follow official warnings from your national agency and the MRC. A rise can come from rain, tides or dam releases; this does not say which.
How we test it: rules written before fitting (scoreboard and method). Data: Mekong River Commission (MRC) PMFM public dashboard; NASA IMERG rain.