Kratie: past signals vs what the gauge showed
41 upstream signals since 2023: 16 rise seen · 25 no rise seen · 0 can't check (no gauge data). 41 gauge rises since 2023 had no signal.
Rise = water level up by at least 0.5 m from one day to the next at the gauge, any cause (often rain). Check window = the signal month plus the slow travel time (18 days) plus one day. Gauge: Kratie. Gauge data held: 2006-11-03 to 2026-10-31.
- A 'Rise seen' is a coincidence in time, not proof the dam caused it: most wet-season rises are rain.
- Signals are monthly satellite estimates; they cannot time a release to the day.
- Gauge history: MRC PMFM public dashboard daily water levels (public tier, ~20 years), used here only to find rise dates; the daily series is not offered for download or in exports.
- The basin-wide backtest (/api/flow/backtest) shows no skill above chance. Read this page in that light.
| Signal month | Dam | Severity | Check window | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-19 | No rise seen |
| 2026-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-09-01 to 2026-10-19 | No rise seen |
| 2026-05 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-19 | No rise seen |
| 2026-05 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-19 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-19 | No rise seen |
| 2026-03 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2026-03-01 to 2026-04-19 | No rise seen |
| 2025-07 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-19 | Rise seen — 2025-07-04, 2025-07-05, 2025-07-26, 2025-07-27, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-19 | Rise seen — 2025-07-04, 2025-07-05, 2025-07-26, 2025-07-27, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-07 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-07-01 to 2025-08-19 | Rise seen — 2025-07-04, 2025-07-05, 2025-07-26, 2025-07-27, 2025-07-28, 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-04 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-04-01 to 2025-05-19 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-19 | No rise seen |
| 2025-03 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2025-03-01 to 2025-04-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-10 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-10-01 to 2024-11-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-08 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-19 | Rise seen — 2024-09-15, 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-19 | Rise seen — 2024-09-15, 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-08-01 to 2024-09-19 | Rise seen — 2024-09-15, 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-06 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-19 | Rise seen — 2024-07-06, 2024-07-15, 2024-07-16, 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-19 | Rise seen — 2024-07-06, 2024-07-15, 2024-07-16, 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-19 | Rise seen — 2024-07-06, 2024-07-15, 2024-07-16, 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-06 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2024-06-01 to 2024-07-19 | Rise seen — 2024-07-06, 2024-07-15, 2024-07-16, 2024-07-18 |
| 2024-01 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Jinghong | HIGH | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-19 | No rise seen |
| 2024-01 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2024-01-01 to 2024-02-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Xiaowan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-11 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-11-01 to 2023-12-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-09 | Nuozhadu (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-19 | Rise seen — 2023-09-01, 2023-09-02, 2023-09-07, 2023-09-15, 2023-09-16 |
| 2023-09 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-19 | Rise seen — 2023-09-01, 2023-09-02, 2023-09-07, 2023-09-15, 2023-09-16 |
| 2023-09 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-19 | Rise seen — 2023-09-01, 2023-09-02, 2023-09-07, 2023-09-15, 2023-09-16 |
| 2023-09 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | HIGH | 2023-09-01 to 2023-10-19 | Rise seen — 2023-09-01, 2023-09-02, 2023-09-07, 2023-09-15, 2023-09-16 |
| 2023-06 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-19 | Rise seen — 2023-07-18, 2023-07-19 |
| 2023-06 | Jinghong | MODERATE | 2023-06-01 to 2023-07-19 | Rise seen — 2023-07-18, 2023-07-19 |
| 2023-04 | Manwan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-19 | No rise seen |
| 2023-04 | Dachaoshan (upstream of Jinghong) | MODERATE | 2023-04-01 to 2023-05-19 | No rise seen |
Unflagged rises
2023-07-20, 2023-07-26, 2023-07-27, 2023-08-01, 2023-08-02, 2023-08-03, 2023-08-04, 2024-07-22, 2024-07-23, 2024-07-30, 2025-05-28, 2025-06-14, 2025-06-15, 2025-06-16, 2025-06-17, 2025-08-27, 2025-08-28, 2025-08-29, 2025-08-30, 2025-09-03, 2025-09-04, 2025-09-24, 2025-09-25, 2025-09-26, 2025-09-27, 2025-09-28, 2025-11-01, 2025-11-08, 2025-11-20, 2026-07-08, 2026-07-09, 2026-07-10, 2026-07-11, 2026-07-12, 2026-07-29, 2026-07-30, 2026-08-07, 2026-08-08, 2026-08-09, 2026-08-12, 2026-08-14
Source: Data: Mekong River Commission (MRC), PMFM public dashboard. Rated discharge is MRC's estimate from water level.