Region preview / beta · not an official warning
Mozambique · Zambia · Zimbabwe
A first look at rain, river patterns and the communities around Kariba and Cahora Bassa.
Focus countries: Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Zambezi drainage basin also extends into neighbouring countries.
Model snapshot fetched 07 Nov 2026, 13:10 Sydney. No live monitoring or alerts are enabled by this page.
Outline area: 1,378,103 km²
Satellite rainfall
| Provider observation date (daily period, not a local clock time) | mm / day |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 0.61 |
| 2026-11-02 | 0.27 |
| 2026-11-03 | 0.66 |
| 2026-11-04 | 0.71 |
| 2026-11-05 | 0.65 |
IMERG V07 Late · retrieved 07 Nov 2026, 13:57 Sydney. Missing days are not zero.
Basin mean of 0.1° cell centres inside the polygon, using the existing IMERG mask and best-product ordering. New region: no climatology or flood thresholds have been established. This snapshot uses Late-product daily values for 1–5 November 2026. 6 November was not available at retrieval; no value is filled in.
NASA GPM IMERG. Reuses the existing IMERG basin-mask pipeline. Raw responses and missing-data records stay in the private archive; no training tables are changed.
Modelled, not measured
| Model daily periods (start 11:00 Sydney; provider UTC days) | m³/s |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-08 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-09 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-10 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-11 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-12 | 976.24 |
| 2026-11-13 | 976.24 |
Largest mean discharge among up to 49 cells within ±0.15° of the configured dam point; exploratory mainstem selection, not locally validated. Provider default GloFAS seamless product, future daily periods only. Cell -16.525, 28.725.
Copernicus Emergency Management Service GloFAS data via Open-Meteo, CC BY 4.0. Selected grid cells are not locally validated and do not represent dam-operator release schedules. Retrieval time is not a model issue time.
Copernicus EMS GloFAS · Open-Meteo Flood API. Keyless access used for local preview research only; production service terms need review before publication.
| Dam | Countries | Latitude, longitude |
|---|---|---|
| Kariba | Zambia / Zimbabwe | -16.523, 28.761 |
| Cahora Bassa | Mozambique | -15.585, 32.704 |
What we watch
Capacity here means nameplate hydroelectric generation, not live output, reservoir storage, water available today or a safe-release limit. We keep operators and managing entities distinct.
Basin rainfall, dated river observations and official operating notices. Lake levels remain linked to the authority, not republished.
Sources: ZESCO generation · ZPC Kariba South · Zambezi River Authority
Upstream rainfall timing, downstream observations and published HCB notices. We do not infer gate openings from a model cell.
Sources: REN: HCB concession and capacity · HCB company information
Forecast, unvalidated
No permissible, colocated observed discharge series is connected for a date-matched comparison. No skill score is claimed.
The current seven-day model snapshot is flat. That is a reason to review the selected reach and provider output, not to assume stable real-world flows.
Stage in centimetres cannot be compared directly with discharge in m³/s. We need colocated, clock-aligned discharge observations, an independent forecast archive and enough paired cases before claiming accuracy. Read the regional methods note →
For current Kariba lake levels and their definitions, go directly to Zambezi River Authority: official Kariba levels. We link to the ZRA page; we do not copy or republish its levels or storage figures.
A place for your town
Tell us which town matters to you. This registers interest only. Regional alerts are not available and no emails, SMS or notifications are sent or queued.
Register town-alert interest →Português (Moçambique): native-reviewed translation planned; not yet available.
Historical context · 2025–26
GDACS and Copernicus documented severe flooding from late December 2025 into early 2026. WHO described displacement, disrupted health services and the need for safe water and disease surveillance.
This is regional context, not a live alert. Much of the reported southern flooding concerned the Limpopo, Incomati and other basins outside the Zambezi. These reports do not validate our model cells or establish that Kariba or Cahora Bassa caused a flood.
Check the data access terms, validate river cells and basin masks, establish reliable rainfall coverage, and work with people who know these rivers. No restricted reference records are included in these public views.
Read our accuracy approach → · Back to the Mekong home page